Ukraine minerals deal; U.S. economy; India-Pakistan

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Today’s top stories

The U.S. economy shrank during the first three months of the year, according to figures released by the Commerce Department yesterday. The U.S. gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year. Consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock market has experienced a significant decline, and many worry that a recession may be imminent. The new data comes just before thousands of protesters are expected to take to the streets nationwide to protest the Trump administration for May Day.

• The first quarter was about people preparing for President Trump’s trade war, while the second quarter, which began in April, is when those tariffs start to bite, ‘s Scott Horsley tells Up First. Greg Daco, the chief economist at EY Parthenon, says people are being more careful about spending money, especially on things like going out to eat. When families cut back on consumer spending, it can put the brakes on economic growth. The potential for a U.S. recession may hinge on whether the president’s tariffs stay intact or are weakened, Daco says.

The U.S. and Ukraine have signed a comprehensive deal to jointly invest in Ukraine’s critical minerals, raw materials and natural resources. Both sides are calling the deal a win. The minerals agreement aims to offer the White House an economic incentive to maintain its investments in Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction as the Trump administration seeks to negotiate an end to the war with Russia.

• ‘s Joanna Kakissis says most Ukrainians she talked to are very guarded about the deal. Volodymyr Landa, a senior economist with the Centre for Economic Strategy in Kyiv, says that, unlike previous versions of the deal, the final version doesn’t obstruct Ukraine’s path to the European Union. The deal notably does not consider previous U.S. military aid to Ukraine as debt that requires repayment. Although the deal doesn’t explicitly address security guarantees, Ukrainians are seeing the language coming from the White House as a good sign.

A manhunt is ongoing after a militant attack killed 26 people in India-controlled Kashmir last week. India accused Pakistan of having a connection to the attack. The group that claimed responsibility is seen as a proxy for the Pakistani military. Pakistan denies any connection to the shootings, and tensions are rising between the two countries.

• Eyewitnesses say some gunmen asked their victims if they were Muslim and shot them if they weren’t, according to ‘s Diaa Hadid. Most of the people who were killed were Hindu men. A former leader of Pakistani-held Kashmir says there has been near-daily gunfire exchange since the initial shootings. Hadid says both countries exchanging gunfire have nuclear weapons, and things could spin out of control. Analysts say there’s a pattern of both countries escalating and waiting for outsiders to diffuse the situation.

Deep dive

• After July 1, 2026, new borrowers won’t have the option of President Joe Biden’s SAVE Plan, or other repayment plans like the Income-Contingent Repayment and Pay As You Earn. In their place will be a standard repayment plan with fixed monthly payments and a repayment assistance plan with monthly payments based on the borrower’s adjusted gross income.
• The definition of full-time college attendance for Pell Grant recipients to receive the maximum amount of money will be increased to 30 credit hours per year. To qualify for any Pell Grant at all, students will be required to be enrolled in 15 credit hours per year.
• After July 1, 2026, the plan would eliminate the Grad PLUS loan program for graduate school borrowers, along with subsidized loans for undergraduate borrowers. These loans enable the government to cover interest on the loans while borrowers are still enrolled in school.

From our hosts

by Leila Fadel, Morning Edition and Up First host

On Monday, I traveled to a prison in St. Albans, Vt. I walked past a wall of barbed wire and through a series of locked doors to meet with a Columbia student imprisoned there despite being charged with no crime. Vermont Public has done vital in-depth coverage of this case. They also helped us secure court documents and generously opened their studios for our broadcasting.

The government is trying to deport him and multiple other students over their advocacy, invoking a rarely used immigration act, saying their presence will have adverse effects on U.S. foreign policy.

During our conversation, the lawful permanent resident said a lot about his love for the United States and its promise of freedom. He said he’d never lived with freedom until he arrived here about 10 years ago. He grew up in a refugee camp in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. He has lost friends and family and had not had freedom of movement or freedom of speech without retaliation.

It was here, he said, that he could finally freely speak his mind. So he protested the Gaza war on his campus. Those protests were chaotic, and there were accusations of antisemitism. Now the government accuses Mahdawi of stoking that antisemitism, even though he has been vocal in his condemnation and opposition to that bigotry as he calls for peace.

Mahdawi told me his choice to protest is what landed him in the prison where we spoke. A day after our conversation aired on Morning Edition he was released by a federal judge in Vermont as his case continues. He is still at risk of deportation but he told me he has hope in the justice system, the principles of the Constitution and hope “that this country will fulfill its promise.”

Listen to the full conversation here.

3 things to know before you go

1. Florida is set to ban fluoride from its drinking water. A bill is heading to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis for a signature.
2. The Los Angeles County program that trains formerly incarcerated individuals for a career in firefighting has recently launched its first all-female cohort. (via LAist)
3. Rent The Chicken co-founder Jenn Thompkins says more people have been interested in their chicken rental service this year, partly due to egg shortages at stores. (via KCUR)

This newsletter was edited by Suzanne Nuyen.